Undoing 2016

By: Michelle Makos

Undoing 2016

Tags: Durham Real Estate Market, Market Predictions, Pickering Homes, Ajax Homes,

So first off, I want to say Happy November !!  Not long now and it will be Christmas.  I just recently attended the TREB AGM at the Congress Center and had the privilege of hearing Benjamin Tal speak (Chief Global Economist for CIBC).   He made a few jokes throughout the presentation, because how do you keep a group of Realtors® awake if you don't.  So here was the few notes I managed to take. WE (Canada) is very close to it's next recession.  Our Economic Expansion has been long but not strong and a recession is around the corner.  This recession will be different from any other we have experienced in the past. (If you remember any).

With negative interest rates in Japan and an American economy at it's peak, there is a lot of momentum around us.  Unfortunately in the US, the economy may be at it's peak but it is said that their short term gain will be very costly to them in the long run and they will pay dearly for it.  USA has made errors in Policy which in turn will hurt their economy as well in 2020.

As you can see from the photo, Toronto is following Vancouver in the market.   This is not good.  Vancouver's real estate is tanking at record rates.  

We are the red line (Toronto) and Vancouver is the yellow.  You can see a direct correlation between the two.  

So next we have interest rates.  I emailed you on October 24th or roundabout about the interest rate hike and it is believed we are in for at least 3 more hikes in 2019.  Those of you with variable rate mortgages may want to consider locking in.  Those of you who are renewing in the next year will see a big difference in your payments with these higher rates so be aware.  What is in fact happening here is - the "UNDOING" of 2016.  The speculation and flipping was an all time high and homes were being sold at record prices.  Prices we may not see again for a long time.  

Here is a small clip of Benjamin Tal on BNN :  https://t.co/nM0EuDjt05   Enjoy !!

If you are selling right now, the market is slower than normal.  Some call it balanced, I disagree.  It is a buyers market and Sellers need to price their home properly to sell it.  In Pickering there are 165 detached homes for sale.  In the last 30 days, 46 have sold.  That means that roughly 27% of the homes listed are selling within a month.  That also does not take into consideration how many times those 46 solds homes actually were reduced and relisted.  So in Pickering right now, it is pretty much in 1 in 4 selling.  This is where dealing with a full time professional that knows the stats and the market, will benefit both a seller and buyer.  The more you know about the area prices and solds, the better equipped you are come out on the winning side.  Keep in mind, if you sell and buy in the same market, you are not really losing anything.  What you may lose on the sell, you will benefit from on the buy !  

If you purchased a new build back in 2016/17 and think you are going to make a killing in 2019, think again.  I do not believe that will happen.  The time for speculation is over.   I had someone email me about a new build in Seaton in Pickering that paid $904K for a 2100 sq. ft home w/ single car garage.  In my mind, you won't see that kind of money for a while now.  You best rent it and wait out the market.

TREB stats are out this morning and pretty much same old, same old.  Market is balanced.  They are saying prices are up in Toronto but I don't see it.  People need to understand that TREB seasonally adjusts the price index so the numbers can and are skewed in my opinion.  If you ask them what they mean by seasonally adjusted, they don't really explain it.  What is a telling sign is that for the second month in a row, seasonally adjusted sales are down after a run of increases for four months, so even there they are having trouble making it look bright.  LOL

One more thing, if you are buying - PLEASE use a qualified Home Inspector.  Ask your agent who they recommends.  I had an inspection on one of my listings and the buyer used a company which I will not name here, private message me if you want to know, and they told the buyer rep and the buyer that this home had no drain !!!  They opened the drain cover  in the furnace room and found some roots ... they almost cost my client the sale of her home and at one point they wanted 10K off the price due to this find.  To make a long story short, I told them they are nuts, there are inspectors and home wouldn't be built without a drain.  She was the original owner, so I called in my own contractor and it was nothing.  It was some dirt and roots that made their way through a small crack that was cleaned and parged and done in less than an hour !!!  They firmed up the deal with no reduction in price and I sent an email with photos to the inspector with some choice words.  Please understand home inspectors in Ontario are not GOD.  They make mistakes.  Some of them have no idea what they are talking about.  I could tell you stories that you would just shake your head.  Some buyers hear one thing and want to run and most times it is just an inspector trying to sound important.  Had another one wanting an ESA Certificate on a property that had absolutely nothing wrong with it?  Why?  So I argued that and they ended up sending an electrician in and he confirmed there is NOTHING wrong with the wiriing.  They also firmed up without any delay.  These are things that can cost Sellers money and aggravation.  Choose wisely !!!

Have a great weekend everyone !!  Stay dry, looks like another rainy day !   One a bright note, I sold 4 out 5 listings in October so the market is moving if the properties are priced correctly.  :)

If you have any questions about the market, a sold property or just an inquiry about real estate, I am always here to listen and chat.  Reach out anytime.  Remember, my site is now sending out the new listings in your neighbourhood along with the solds.  If you were set up for new listings from years back, you will automatically be switched over to solds too.  I hope you like it !! 


Michelle Makos, Broker Owner  
Royal Heritage Realty Ltd.
Call or Text Direct  416-300-3004
Office:  905-831-2222